Fall Housing Fair 08 discussion of Chongqing - Lotus World Buddhist world - Shen - Focus blog

 Moderator: Today we are talking about the main topic of the Autumn Fair is also off, because this year the housing market situation is not very good, so we look forward to the Autumn Fair more worthy and more suspense. Then the Autumn Fair this year, what with the previous years Autumn Fair What is different or highlights? including developers of the Autumn Fair, what kind of hope and attitude? does the Government have a real But it is also a good move. then the housing market to the current situation is a good time to buy a house, because consumers are hesitant to wait and see special emphasis on psychology. Finally, please give some suggestions for home buyers? < > <> First of all talk about the first question, the Autumn Fair this year, compared with previous years there will be changes? because you are experienced professionals in the industry, your view may be more representative. <> < > Dong: I think the new disk volume in this year's Autumn Fair Housing Fair may be the largest previous one, and there are several reasons .<><> market last year, this wave of land, many developers took Basically, the development to be listed this year, but missed this year's Spring Fair is to only catch the Autumn Fair, the policy has many benefits, in fact, there are also many individuals are forced to understand the frustration. I read the first two days of total reported Articles with more than 1,700 the amount of this year's real estate market to melt down faster than last year, more than all the developers in the financial strength or the ability to project development, many problems have all levels. This year has been suppressed, of the amount to be depressed to want the rest of the Autumn Fair this year on and stroke a few months. <> Lotus World Buddhist world: in fact the two are not contradictory, but overall bearish. <> Lotus World Buddhist world: the second half of 2006, or if it is to take place in 2007, according to current price may be 5% -10 do% of the profits, but if the time to get to push forward, this is can not be estimated, and may be 30%, 40% or even higher. In fact in the second half of 2006 to 2007, this time the first half of the land not really get into the market, if pushed it would like Hengda species can not wait. For example, my original company, the second half of 2006 and 2007 to take the land onto the market have not yet. So before the second half of 2006 to take place, and now there is no 5 percent developed the concept of profit is also quite high. This is my view on the 5% of the profits for the Autumn Fair .<><> first half of 2007, if our developers out of their existing stock or less, and now developers is the most relaxing, most enjoyable, if not the finished goods, or some are under construction, which is the most uncomfortable part of the developers, because in October 2007 just when the market has changed in Chongqing, without shipping , then this when faced with difficulties in the first of the Housing Fair, before we actually have a great look for Autumn. as if, like the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was probably over half a year that will gradually disappear , but now spread around the world, the financial impact on the real economy, these are the developers did not think of. If the second half of the Housing Fair is our last great hope, full of expectations, the developer to the heart of this year have been very clear that this Autumn will not have any major changes, it would not be a big breakthrough. It should be said once injured a further injury, then hurt again, he has become accustomed, but he is after all in here He had to do, but also to find a way to resolve. This is a passive approach to solve cases like, but it is precisely in a calm state of mind, but not the second half of the Autumn Fair last year, as agitation .<><> ; the changes in the amount of the Autumn Fair, I do not think it has real significance, because 10%, 20%, 30% do not have much meaning, the substantive issue is consumer confidence, we have no confidence, an increase of 10 % I think it is useless .<><> the Qiujiao Hui Ping Dan cases as in the property market, a normal concentration of transactions, not to give it much hope. Housing Fair value is less well the original , and it is a place where we focus on trading .<><> Moderator: Mr. Liu made a lot of information here, according to your observation and analysis, the Autumn Fair this year, compared with previous years, what has been revealed We may smell ?<><> Wei-Ping Liu: I think the developers will come up this year, offers the most likely means to attract buyers .<><> Moderator: Autumn Fair has become a means Bargain large field ?<><> Liu Weiping: The Fair Housing program in the bailout what is, in fact, a bailout is to get developers to hand money to the people inside, or, in fact, rescue way into a room to a point of intersection, can allow people to buy a house really benefit. If the government reduced the taxes, the developer may be a small discount .<><> Moderator: You summed up room intersection is two points, one will become a big fire sale market, the place is a gimmick. Second, there is a suspense is whether the Government will rescue .<><> Dong: I think it Depending on the company's own situation, I agree with Mr. Liu's view, there will be many companies to come here for other discounts or promotions. But there will be no fire sale .<><> considerable number of enterprises ; we ourselves have discussed this matter internally, Chongqing, there are three types of real estate enterprises .<><> is the last hope of a type listed, it must be large to hoarding of land, but can not be listed after purchase It is the largest financial pressure, on behalf of such enterprises in terms of enterprises in Chongqing Lake, Golden Section, Hengda, in this environment this year, such enterprises are the most difficult .<><> Enterprise is the second wave did not catch it last year, so we accelerate our rhythm, all the houses in the first half Kai out and found that the market is dying, this business is very painful, on behalf of the enterprise is co-letters out this year, the letter agreement the eight there is a class with open .<><> hands in stock last year, the funds earn hands. But that situation last year, we all try to steal the king, because no grabbed without the grab, and this wave of the year is quite happy that this enterprise should belong to one of the .<><> Loncin Moderator: Wanda interview with Chairman Wang Jianning, he said Wanda Chongqing, which will not go to auction a piece of land, never mind heat, I think this is just the thing to say after the wise words. Poly recently heard to say that, because state-owned enterprises, he said that we will never go robust type of road, would not mind heat, to be responsible for money .<><> Dong: The two companies are completely different companies, Poly took place is directly to the Shenzhen Municipal Government, I would this land, I'll get less money, you have to give me, these two businesses are completely different. Chongqing Poly Poly relatively so no other big to strong .<><> say is that the three types of enterprises, the words of subdivided real estate market can be divided into two companies. One is to do real estate development company dedicated to do a single, this kind of enterprise in the real estate market downturn, it financial situation is very bad. So, this year to go diving, streaker in such enterprises. There is also a business is behind other industries to support, but also get Loncin speak, so to speak, this set of do not sell the house, too, went through this winter, and now most companies are downsizing, but Loncin no layoffs, said larger, may have to take year-end awards. This business does not mean that indicators can not be completed this year to live , maybe next year the vote counted and compared with what projects. So, this year there will be price cuts to some extent, but the price down is a normal sales price. include outreach have been doing are all so to do, did not say go What kind of mentality, or what kind of expectations given ?<><> Dong: Actually, the Autumn Fair this year should be the most typical, there are three forms. One is a single development, there is no other industry do support, and financial pressure led to an opportunity to point it must find all the houses are sold, the opportunity to point the current situation on the market has always existed, until a few months after that is the Autumn Fair, plus some new measures the Government has, I hope more Sell that house, this is not the normal discharge of sell the house, if you go to the Autumn Fair is the corporate image if an exhibition is like Loncin .<><> this third category, behind a number of projects supported, the real estate sales last year accounted for only Loncin Loncin enterprises with annual sales of 1 / 5, so, companies do not have too much pressure, this time more is to demonstrate the company's image .<><> Moderator: Loncin to attend the Autumn Fair this year, up ?<><> Dong: Yes, participants may take the stand is not very satisfactory, in the second row. but at the Autumn Fair, we also hope to sell more point is that better than not to sell Good .<><> peak: Good .<><> Dong money better than money: Although the Fair Housing boss did not say you do not sell the house put out to open, but we still hope sell more that under the normal sales cycle to achieve a normal sales .<><> World Buddhist lotus world: everyone says that developers have the mentality of the people I in turn say something. In fact, this place in Chongqing, Game developers the right people with particularly large, there are several reasons. First, the attractiveness to foreign Chongqing, Chengdu, the presence of the greatly weakened .<><> Dong: Chengdu, foreign buyers are not low at 60%, while about 15% of Chongqing, a municipality that this is not the concept of the World Buddhist lotus .<><> world: our entire real estate of which, the real outsiders to spend only 10 or so, then this How great that the rigid requirements of Chongqing? as economic development and the municipality of Chongqing is a serious lag in comparison to urban areas the amount of purchase is relatively small. I can give you an example, I used to do in Nanjing, when We are the purchase of each item of Jiangsu generally not less than 1 / 3, I believe that absolutely no such indicators of Chongqing .<><> Dong: I have been the project of Nanjing, Hangzhou, called a real estate (Happy Spring months), which is the edge of a real estate Qiantang River, Hangzhou, was done in a most cattle drive, I had thought after reading that was moving to buy, but later learned about the composition of customers, I to dispel the idea, buy a house here, almost no one is Hangzhou. Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou, Taizhou where the money went to Hangzhou,UGG shoes, a little to buy a house, I know all these people, I say forget . because that real estate really looked comfortable. when selling price is 1.5 yuan / square meter -2 yuan / square meter between the local people was opened in Hangzhou can not afford, the real estate probably lived more than 1,000 households, Hangzhou buy no more than 100 households, all suburbs of. And Chongqing does not have the world's response to .<><> lotus Buddha World: The third part is the rigid requirements of people living in the city self-differentiation, produced by self-upgrade. but this part of human existence as the speed of industrial economic development of Chongqing municipality is far and do not match, so this amount is a certain limit, that is, and coastal cities, to some extent the level of self-upgrade The fourth is the lower .<><> the field to Chongqing to real estate speculators, no matter how fried, Chongqing house prices do not rise up, I always think that the urban area of Chongqing Chongqing, the two cutting Jiang , makes it impossible to mobilize the Chongqing market. and in other coastal cities, as long as one to form a regional, will soon be on the surrounding radiation. because the surrounding any road can get here, but not reach Chongqing. So rigidity of real estate needs to achieve to achieve the third can not .<><> Dong: I went to Chongqing, has more than 3 years, after I came to have a definition of Chongqing, Chongqing, Chongqing should not be called, should be called the Chongqing province, and now we are talking about the main city of Chongqing, should be called Yuzhong city, south city, a large ferry City, Jiangbei City, so there is no radiation to the heart. Jiefangbei first that is absolutely central, as the city development, group structure has been formed to jointly will be relatively small. other places, such as Guangzhou, I had radiation in South China, Guangzhou is a center ring is the real world Link .<><> Lin Buddhist World: second half of 2006 to the first half of 2007 focused on a rigid demand for consumption, the future ahead and I want to buy to buy, there is an early consumption. Based on the above four reasons is concerned, there is plenty of so-called rigid Chongqing demand, in fact, following the breakdown of these four conditions, rigid demand has a serious recession, if you want to Chongqing rigid demand, have to wait until the next wave of economic development .<><> I can use two sentence is concerned, Chongqing Problem in the first industrial enterprise in the national plant, fine, for the enterprise to the next wave of real estate development in Chongqing played a good supporting role. This is the rigid requirements of the most important support points. Chongqing City is still not adjusted, like many cities, to look at real estate as a mainstay product, the coastal city of Chongqing will repeat the mistake, the real estate industry to today's level, including real estate companies should clearly recognize that real estate is not national pillar industry, can not become a pillar industry. It is a national pillar industry of the country will increasingly hurt. should clear out the national pillar industry in this area .<><> Dong: We used the old talk about the international imperialism, the United Kingdom called the industrial empire, the French called the usury of the empire, but all have not done these in the end the United States, the strongest industrial industries, has continued to the present. U.S. real estate Although very powerful, including the United States now has several large real estate business, could China not as dozens of people put together great, but the U.S. did not see it as a mainstream, is a real industry in the operation. <> <> Lotus World Buddhist world: the rigid demands of the problem solved, we know that the people of Chongqing City, the game is very right, this is a real problem .<><> Liaoxin Mei: I just view Shen I agree with most, but I would like to state, from the 2002 to the present, indeed the residents of Chongqing city and suburban residents to purchase a rigid demand, but to the current stage of development, especially in large heavy volume last year , there was some decline this year, but we note that the rigid requirements for first time home buyers are present in any era. So I think the current high cost of real estate or a small family will be very popular. <> < > Dong: Chongqing is the rigidity of the previous demand-driven, in addition to part of the second half of last year, foreign investors came in, Chongqing rigid demand that the price to this level of support should be said is reasonable. With the future development of Chongqing , employment, industrial upgrading of industry and other industries will bring more outsiders, because a municipality is its own people can not buy a house. then bring these people is to increase the purchasing power and increase the purchasing power of is bound to push up real estate, at least more real estate increments. in the supply of the premise without much change, prices will be up because of supply and demand decisions .<><> the second half of this part of the real estate market is off to invest overseas, so come early rising prices. and consumer psychology is not mature in Chongqing, especially in the home, car inside, a look at the typical up, everyone rob, so many people last year, is to borrow money to buy a house, in fact, is the consumer to buy a house this year and next year the amount, this year's decline is normal and there is another wave of .<><> data The average price this year has pulled through the first half compared with last year is gone up. I think the second half of the stock market does not indicate any problem, because the stock market, people have money, all of a sudden turn. Now is return to reason, and return to the rigid demands of reason. So I think the market potential is quite large, especially in Chongqing, I see the world more .<><> Buddha lotus world: the mind of consumers First, the right to a larger game. Second, speculative mentality among consumers is gradually disappearing, which I especially like to tell you communicate about the stock market and real estate market is not the same as essential, stock finance, virtual economy, housing real estate economy is the real economy, and there are essentially different. the real economy are real consumption in any case, any person to speculation that he not go on, not consuming it, he will have to pass on to others, or to consumption. So the real economy must be the consumers who ultimately foot the bill. The stock market is hard to say. In this case, the speculative nature of the real economy which must be cut, you can give it a little bubble, the bubble acts as a lubricant for the role can be. but If the value of the real economy over a certain time, is the real bubble, this bubble even cover up the entity itself. Once you get to such a degree, on the real estate business is very sad .<><> Lee East: Because the stock and real estate really is not the same as the stock that say it mildly, the current domestic investment were mostly speculative, because the stock is a virtual economy, so the value of a certain number of bad about it, now listed means too many, but now they do not understand in the end worth, so it worth is to look at everyone on the market to determine which particularly affected by the market. but real estate is something of value, value is bound to a price, but value and price that will have some time away from, but be sure the decision is based on values as the basis of price. Last year, that wave of market is because we all feel that the real estate to appreciate, so into the fight to kill the line. revaluation is also based on current on the basis that the price is undervalued, quite a liter of space, so the vote will go. and buy a house to buy less than a room. Chongqing, buy a house there is a characteristic that had to be able to buy a house copy in the end, otherwise, Chongqing copying the prices to buy a house to the bottom of the very few. the first time the original 1,000 yuan to buy a house much too expensive,UGG boots clearance, but later, when a 2,000 yuan, sit still, to hurry to buy, and this time it did not copy for 1,000 yuan in the end, but he was copied in the end after the terms of the. but later rose to 3,000 yuan, and this time he regrets, because he did not copying the 2000 Multiple Quotes .<><> which wave from the national point of view, Chongqing is a surprisingly low price, low bit outrageous, there are four municipalities, housing and the other three municipalities of Chongqing than prices, less than half of the lowest people .<><> World Buddhist lotus world: Speaking of Fair Housing, Fair Housing I believe most people this will wait and see, the wait is not only in Chongqing market reasons, and because the impact of greater international market, now is the international financial turmoil continues, immediately affect the real economy, if people understand the economics are aware, the next step on the real economy more generally also unclear, although now we do not say the mouth, but the mind can understand. observe the financial turmoil on the real economy, the best entry point to 4,5 months in the first half of next year this time, this time to observe the financial crisis China's real economy and even the world of the real economy in the end how much the best time .<><> peak: Chongqing's economic structure is dumbbell-shaped city,UGG bailey button, two heavy, intermediate small, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang coastal area is are olive, Chongqing, relatively few people who absolutely have no money, absolutely rich people is relatively small, the middle more, but raise the dumbbell is a consumer, a government, one is a developer, Only lift the dumbbell, the Housing Fair will not be diving show .<><> Liu Weiping: I do the real estate industry for a decade, say developers to make money mentality is the mentality, the mentality of the people is to buy a cheap house mentality, which is both an air game. Last year the end of May I am in Chongqing, said that, many reporters have to buy the house, because the adoption of 6.18 to punch in Chongqing is an Hong Kong, but rose later regret buying this year. But to think before buying the rise. <> ; <> our own farmers and municipalities of Chongqing, where purchasing power is not called, are not comparable with other municipalities, economic level, earning capacity and purchasing power are not comparable. rigid demand in Chongqing in the pocket will always be poor, so there housing prices in many large companies is slow, from Yubei, two terms, 1999 prices 600 yuan / square meter to 4,200 yuan / square meter .1998 was 5,500 yuan in the Banan District, but now Banan District price is only 3,500 yuan / square meter, which has become his own pocket to buy Chongqing residents, outsiders can not. so people from different state of mind, are not optimistic about Chongqing, either hot, or is it really humid. <> <> this August, the central ministries to Chungking visit to Chongqing as the Garden City, 6.18 last year, which serves the same purpose, but that is not in the top of the economic crisis brought to this point. <> ; <> Dong: Chongqing, there are also problems of external publicity, and now that beauty, beauty, food, beauty to come by and look about, read the to go back. food, but also come to eat, finished on the back. For beauty, in fact, no beautiful scenery, in addition to a tree, there is the Three Gorges, but are outside the urban area of Chongqing, Chongqing, passing so many, basically came to see beautiful women, eat food, then look left. And now that missing is the pillar industries, energy industry in Chongqing is relatively weak link, the earliest time talking about the manufacturing industry, but now it is going downhill, now left behind Chang, steel, high-tech information industry in Chongqing, little, Chongqing Basic local university students trained to run along the coast, and in the field who are said to go back to school to work .<><> Chongqing Liu Weiping: We are now planning the big crossing area, moving out of heavy steel later, after the high-tech industries are put into the World Buddhist lotus .<><> World: From the economic orientation is concerned, Chongqing in the southwest area is also not really center, capable of supporting the future development of the city, so that the value of the city, the economy as the most important support is definitely not the real estate industry .<><> Liaoxin Mei: I think a lot of developers or with a normal mentality, Housing Fair twice a year, as long as the present progress of the project allowed him to opening, or been opened Zhengzai sale, and generally to attend, the Xiwei can not do without, one year only twice, we have to go to participate in this event. we did not participate, not because of the Housing Fair held on the attitude of denial, support only because the progress can not be opened now, and now the time to participate in distant left panel, so did not go to the World Buddhist lotus .<><> world: it can be said before the real estate trade fair called the event the property is or called the feast, now called Fair, in fact, is the Housing Fair returns to its standard .<><> Dong: But now the Housing Fair is now in a tasteless .<><> Moderator: Does it feel that this is the last straw, even lower prices, whether irrational ?<><> Dong developers: do not rule out the idea, but most is not the case . room as normal under the Fair Trade Fair, organized by the government stepped in market place, we are all selling the usual, this time to sell all together for two days .<><> lotus world Buddhist World: consumer convenience, was supposed to run around looking for, but now a day can all read .<><> Dong: Housing Fair on trading volume has some touches, but this is limited I do not think a lot of people as a straw to the Housing Fair, may be just snacks. <> Liao Xinmei: In fact, consumers and developers are very rational, developers will not say that the Housing Fair to open my Great for special promotions, because the cost of the bottom line is here. For the consumers, will not that were not previously heard of this dish, and today to the Housing Fair on the next one to buy, but in fact he is Over the past looked for a long time, and finally to the Housing Fair to focus on transactions and enjoy some preferential policies provided by the Government .<><> Moderator: I see an information, this year there will be heavy volume of dozens of new disc The new disc is bound to increase in the market have some impact, of course, not just the negative, there may be some positive signals, whether the product format richer, my choice wider, and then what this developer lotus-like world of ?<><> Buddha world: Sometimes we looking forward to the new disc offers something new. In fact, the degree of real estate to do today, to want to do new tricks, people in the industry point of view it is difficult, whether it is refurbished or not, for the concept of do other new tricks. In fact, new things to mention today is just what the previous realignment .<><> In this case, to hope that the new disc brings something new to stimulate the market hardly bring much, there is no effect, and bring real is the policy, since it is certain the new disc before the developers to consider the lack of places to be improved , modified, others some preferential measures, I believe 99% of the time when the new disk must be available to open lower,UGG boots, Gaokaidizou unlikely, not to mention, opening to go, I estimate 99% low open groping forward, if l can go to that if not stopped there .<><> rise of the new disk technology innovation, the concept of innovation should not expect more, the price mostly from low-cost market, the market is full of low-cost option market signals. in terms of developers, to greatly reduce his expectations, in fact, this time from the developer, general considerations possible in the future there will be the case for price development, because it starts when the developer, the general would not say I can not let the price, and is generally considered a last resort in the future could still be the case pulled down bit, but his profit margins have been greatly reduced .<><> Dong: I think the impact of the new disc is the new disk, no other impact. from nothing in architectural form The Innovation, and no real sense of stimulating the market, and have nothing away from the price of a good stimulus. further marketing of the few bright spots .<><> Moderator: But as the new Pan listing, had three personal eating two Mantou to nervous, but now five Lai Chi bread, the more intense the .<><> Lian World Buddhism the world: its from the past, when the real estate go up and see next to that one, about our products, he sold that price, I also risen to the price, and even a little higher than it. But now prices are basically fixed costs and profits, and pricing has undergone fundamental changes. < > <> Dong: So is the market price, one is cost pricing, the market is generally optimistic about the market pricing, and the prices are generally not good when the cost of pricing, cost pricing and the reason for this is no loss, slight profit That can play away. Also, I think the new disk get together to market itself is not normal. real estate policy announced earlier this year, unlike previously published only temporary Housing Fair opened, so some feel that there is such a new class of disk wind car, why I do not take. In addition to enjoy a few days ago can not this offer, missed the bus a few days later after the tax has returned to normal conditions, not cost, is now concentrated into just a few reasons why the market. This new site is opened , the real estate business and buy a house, everyone on the same day, and made no hot spots of the .<><> peak: I think the new disk is not important, there is no new price and new policies offer more than the new Important .<><> Dong: real estate quality and the coastal city of Chongqing is not very different, and even some do better than the coast, this wave of market in which I want to beat the opponents to work hard only in the product doing very fine .<><> real estate there is a characteristic of Chongqing, the marketing piece of marketing tools and coastal areas, the level difference is great, personally think that the time difference between 7-8 years, Now a bit recently, but at least 5 years. I've talked to some friends, director of marketing at least be able to do is to do more than 10 disks, but also not to mention participation, but in Chongqing, in turn, and did one or two disk to do a marketing director position. Marketing is the talk about experience, it does not care how much can be done, but just promise not to do bad this disc. With this marketing gap later, open the newspaper, all real estate developers In addition to the case were not the same, not the same color, the other is basically the same. because I did not end, because my little experience, because I lack the strength in the professional, I do not know how to do, I do see the boss What, I do what I do to ensure that no mistakes, so take a look, all follow suit. This resulted in Chongqing, the value of real estate is undervalued, that is, Chongqing, and the value of real estate prices are almost similar. <> ; <> Liaoxin Mei: I think the new disk volume increased, but the trend of prices will not have much impact, based on two reasons .<><> first chain of their own funds , we see some of stocks in price early this year the pace of expansion is too fast, the financial policy of tight money from the chain tension, had to discount promotions, but the wave of price but relatively small impact on SMEs, especially in the back to do business entity model of the development of enterprises, such as development of a diversified group is Dong, and we do manufacturers predecessor, and its entire financing platform will be a great improvement, it is the enterprises themselves according to each different situation. <> <> The second is in any case, as long as truly cost-effective enterprise, Douneng through. this time, whether it is the concept of marketing or product development, to say how much of the innovation, such as the sum of the total, said Li Shen, this is not much space. but I think innovation is the market and consumers from the Deep Analysis, if the real target customers read, and to his intimate care, I think innovation has a lot of inexhaustible inspiration. I think the second half of this year, the real cost-effective products, really touched the product will stand out target customers .<><> Moderator: So in the present case, the Housing Fair Government's early release policy, then there will be what the next policy, Liao general very good, the media should have a correct guidance of public opinion .<><> World Buddhist lotus world: the media should reflect the fact that the first reflect the views of the parties, on this basis that the right one from the point of view. Therefore, we view all the media to convey to everyone, of course, there are a bunch of their own commentators think that the direction he went through the above, as to whether you think Yes, to judge for yourself whether it is now .<><> rescue, you can contrast this example from the United States, the United States now in rescue, first adopted a buy bad assets, is now to buy the banking business bad debts, indicating that the original state assets to buy bad assets, which is a saved, now adjust the bailout to turn it into equity, to ensure that the interests of all taxpayers in the future, future earnings or not to profit Ye Hao, can play The role of absolute and can control it, this is a change to the rescue method .<><> Domestically, in fact, any industry, it is saved, a harmonious society does not need any one group fall in the hope of every the status of a group down in an orderly development of the concept from the state, from the perspective of social harmony, which the industry does not want to happen ...