Monday, November 15, 2010

Export tax rebates will give you the stock market risks

 Last night saw this news to be sent to the blog,Bailey UGG boots, but because of the time did not do too much comment. Now we finally have some time to talk about this issue in detail. The concept of export tax rebate off the old Shapiro has explained, we can see see. but the export tax rebate in the end what the stock market and our relationship, what role can it?
First, I think that this information is indirect, not for the regulation of the stock market is soaring trade surplus for the present, surface excessive pressure on RMB appreciation, in the face of excess liquidity to the. Wen said at a meeting a few days ago, mainly to the tax regulation, monetary policy is supporting the macro-control policy. The regulation of export tax rebates in the nature of short-term non-lethal reasons: First, the early days had been reported, the market has been expected, were digested in advance; Second, the stock market itself is also the indirect impact of this information is often embodied in the afternoon in; III This policy adjustment is a direct tax on some of the export trade sector have a negative impact on the broader market does not have much impact on short-term.
Second, the market outlook, this information can not be taken lightly. because our policy is for trade surplus foreign exchange reserves by central banks to issue more RMB to buy the foreign currency hedging, so the increase in foreign trade surplus will make the central bank to invest more cash in the domestic currency, the natural increase in the liquidity of money. Therefore, this policy will be in the future chronic effects have been generated, it said, less foreign trade surplus, the natural issue of rebates when the yuan to less than control of the sources, is to reduce the money supply. Therefore, this policy is aimed at the future long-term excess liquidity problem,bailey UGG boots, so long-term impact is still quite a lot, the specific impact is, it depends on how much of its impact on foreign trade.
Third, the introduction of this policy is definitely not the last tax policy regulation, there must be a second time, Third, the impact of this on the disk is more far-reaching, which created a policy to do more bearish expectations, still has some influence on the market.
Fourth, the impact on the market now: the market is now fully priced in the case is expected to come to market now, and thus short-term resistance is strong. not only will not have to play the market's short-term movements of the teeth, but will make up the broader market attack. This is the reason for today's breakthrough 4300, the major short-term strategy because you will not have the introduction of change control policies. So, I still believe that the new record high, the road still to go,UGG boots cheap, but not like earlier when it flat in front of 3000-4000, Manniu may be necessary to the.
Fifth, the operation strategy: Again, discard those that bounce off,UGG shoes, and no real results, real support for the stock subject to buy those high quality, good price, there is a genuine concept of the stock. gradually to this principle on the side bar, this will not be wrong. 

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